[펌] Impossible Choices in a World Depression

오래간만에 올려보는 월러스틴 옹의 세계 경제에 대한 코멘트입니다. 뭐 여전히 같은 이야기를 하고 있습니다. 이번 위기는 여기저기 대증적으로 처방해서 해결될 위기가 아니며 자본주의 역사에서 주기적으로 찾아오던 전체 시스템 범위의 위기라는 점을 이야기하고 있습니다.

한편 이 글은 크루그먼 교수를 비롯한 케인즈주의자들의 주장에 대한 답을 담고 있습니다. 크루그먼 교수는 지금 논의되고 있는 경기부양책을 중지하는 것은 큰 실수로 재정적자를 유지해야 한다는 주장을 하고 있습니다. 하지만 현실은? 정부에서 그렇게 하고 싶어도 할 수 없다는 겁니다.

요즘 'Lords of Finance' 라는 책을 읽고 있는데, 20세기 초에 일어났던 대공황에 대한 책입니다. 아직 대공황 전 역사에 대한 부분까지 읽고 있는데, 요즘 일어나는 일과 좀 유사한 면도 있군요. 세계 각국 정부가 서로 수출을 늘려 자국의 경기를 살리고자 하는 부분 같은 것들이 말이죠.

경제시스템 내부의 버블이 꺼지면서 국가가 나서서 부양할 필요가 있었던 미국이나 유럽에 비해서.. 아직 버블이 꺼지는 초기 단계인 우리나라는 이미 경기부양 수단을 상당히 소진한듯 보이는데.. 이거 정작 부동산 거품이 꺼지고 난 뒤에 배로 당하는 거 아닌가 하는 걱정이 있습니다.

지금 세계 경제에서 일어나고 있는 일은 각국 정부가 민간에서 생긴 부실을 뒷처리 하는데 힘이 부처 그나마 경기 부양 조차도 어려워하는 상황으로 출구전략을 시작하고 있는 판입니다. 전세계 경기는 하강하게 될 것이고, 대기업 수출위주의 우리나라 경제 구조는 큰 영향을 받을텐데.. 이 시점에서 국내 부동산 거품까지 꺼지기 시작한다면? 이라는 최악의 시나리오가 머리속에 떠오릅니다.


http://www.iwallerstein.com/impossible-choices-in-a-world-depression/
Commentary No. 283, June 15, 2010

As the world’s leaders and pundits continue to deny the reality of the world depression – they won’t even use the word – the impossible choices that are faced by government after government become more and more obvious every day. Consider what has happened in just the last month.

The United States had its worst unemployment figures in quite a while. Yes, there were some new jobs, but 95% of them were of temporary census workers. Private employers added just 10% of the jobs they were expected to add. Despite this, it has now become politically impossible to get further stimulus money voted by Congress. And the Federal Reserve has ceased to buy Treasury securities and mortgage bonds. These had been the two main strategies to increase jobs. Why? The call for deficit cuts has grown too strong.

The most immediate consequence can be seen at the level of the budgets of the separate state governments. The cost of Medicaid has gone up because of the economic crisis. This cost is borne by the separate states. They have been helped in the past year by increased federal subsidies of state spending on Medicaid. Congress won’t renew this. Gov. Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania says this will increase his state’s budgetary shortfall by two-thirds, and force it to lay off 20,000 teachers, police officers, and other government workers. Of course, this is in addition to lost medical services for many people.

In Great Britain, the new Prime Minister, David Cameron, says that cutting down on borrowing is “the most urgent issue facing Britain today.” The Financial Times sums up his proposals in its headline: “Cameron pitches an age of austerity.” Its assessment of this policy: “If the government is to make such steep reductions in spending, it cannot avoid visibly damaging frontline services. The cuts will be more savage than anything contemplated by even the Thatcher government.”

Germany’s Chancellor Merkel has announced her version of austerity: deep public spending cuts immediately, rising in amount each year for the next four years. She has also announced new taxes on airlines, which the world’s airlines immediately announced would seriously hurt their ability to reduce their negative balance-sheets and save them from bankruptcy. Germany’s unemployment rates will increase, but its unemployment benefits will be reduced. Other governments in Europe plus the United States have been urging Germany to spend more and export less, in order to restore world demand. Merkel rejected these demands, saying that debt reduction was her priority.

Japan’s new Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, warned the country that the debt situation is so bad that Japan could face a situation comparable to that of Greece. To remedy this, he proposed some increased taxation, more regulation of the financial arena, and new kinds of public expenditures.

In the middle of all this super-austerity in the North, a most remarkable thing has occurred, which seems to have escaped almost all notice. As everyone knows, Spain is one of the many European countries now in economic difficulty because of very large debt ratios. On May 30, Fitch Ratings joined other ratings companies in reducing Spanish bond ratings from AAA to AA+. The question is why. Just the day before, the Spanish parliament had voted the country’s deepest budget cuts in 30 years.

Budget cuts are presumably what Germany and others have been calling for in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and other countries threatened by too much debt. Spain responded to this pressure. And just because it did, Fitch Ratings downgraded it. Brian Coulton, Fitch’s person in charge of ratings for Spain, said in the statement downgrading Spain: “The process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium-term.”

So there it is – damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. The financial speculators have created a disastrous fall in the world-economy. The ball was then thrown to the states to solve the problem. The states have less money and more demands on them. What can they do? They can borrow, until those who lend money won’t do it, or demand too high a rate of interest. They can tax, and the businesses say that this will cut back their ability to create jobs. They can reduce expenditures. And in addition to the terrible pain this inflicts on everyone, but especially on the more vulnerable, this action also will reduce the possibility of growth, as Mr. Coulton points out for Spain.

Of course, there is one big place to reduce expenditures – the military. Military expenditures do provide jobs but far fewer than if the money were used otherwise. This does not apply only to the biggest spenders like the United States. A virtually uncommented aspect of Greece’s debt problems was its heavy expenditure on the military. But are governments ready to reduce significantly military expenditures? It doesn’t seem too likely.

So, what can the states do? They are trying one thing today, and another thing tomorrow. Last year, it was stimulus. This year, it’s debt reduction. The year after, it will be taxation.

In any case, the overall situation will be worse and worse.

Can China save us? Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley’s very acute analyst, seems to think so, provided the government “stimulate(s) private growth.” In that case, rising wages will be offset by higher productivity. Maybe. But the Chinese government has been resistant to such a policy up to now, not for economic but for political reasons. Its drive to maintain political stability has been paramount up to now. Furthermore, even Roach has one great fear – China-bashing in Washington leading to trade sanctions. Myself, I think that’s a high probability, as the U.S. economic situation continues to deteriorate.

The way out of all of this is not some small adjustment here or there – whether of the monetarist or the Keynesian variety.

To emerge from the economic box in which the world finds itself requires a fundamental overhaul of the world-system. This will surely have to come, but how soon?