크루그먼 아저씨가 쓴 칼럼인데 최근 FED의 2차 양적완화를 두고 독일과 중국의 반발과 공화당의 반발의 배경에 있는 동기를 설명하고 있다.

- 미국의 인플레이션 위험은 낮다. 오히려 디플레이션 위험이 높다.
- 독일과 중국은 달러화 가치 하락에 따른 자국 상품의 수출 경쟁력 약화를 우려하고 있다.
- 공화당은 경제가 망가지길 바라기 때문에 FED가 무슨 짓을 하건 비난하고 있다.

정도로 요약할 수 있다.

미국에 인플레이션 위험이 없다는 부분은 크루그먼과 누리엘 아저씨의 견해가 일치하고 있다. 크루그먼 아저씨는 독일과 중국의 비난이 약간은 부당한 듯이 말하고 있지만... 미국의 양적완화로 독일은 모르겠지만, 중국의 인플레이션 위험이 높아지는 것은 사실일듯 한데. 중국이 미국의 달러화 약세로 인한 자국 수출경쟁력 약화를 우려해서 비난하는 것인지, 아니면 양적완화로 인한 인플레이션 내지는 버블을 우려하는 것인지는 잘 모르겠다. 두 가지는 서로 상충하는 상황인듯 한데... 누가 잘했나 잘못했나를 떠나서 미국과 중국은 결국 제로섬 게임을 하고 있는 듯한 느낌이다. 나만 살려고 하는 상황이랄까.

미국의 경제시스템이 망가지면 중국은 당연히 영향을 받는다. 중국의 경제 시스템이 망가지면 미국이 영향을 받을까? 한국의 경우 미국이나 중국이나 둘 중 하나만 망가져도 영향을 받는다.

우리나라는 체감상으로도 그렇고 어디선가 본 본원통화 증가추세를 봐도 그렇고 확실하게 인플레이션이다. 돈이 너무 풀렸다. 그러면 달러화 가치가 올라가야 하는것 아닌가? 미국도 많이 풀었지만, 우리나라도 많이 풀엇다. 중국도 많이 풀엇다. 그런데, 경제 시스템에 자리한 버블은 미국보다는 중국이나 우리나라가 더 크다.

과연 어느나라 화폐의 가치가 더 낮아져야 할까?

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What do the government of China, the government of Germany and the Republican Party have in common? They’re all trying to bully the Federal Reserve into calling off its efforts to create jobs. And the motives of all three are highly suspect.


It’s not as if the Fed is doing anything radical. It’s true that the Fed normally conducts monetary policy by buying short-term U.S. government debt, whereas now, under the unhelpful name of “quantitative easing,” it’s buying longer-term debt. (Buying more short-term debt is pointless because the interest rate on that debt is near zero.) But Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, had it right when he protested that this is “just monetary policy.” The Fed is trying to reduce interest rates, as it always does when unemployment is high and inflation is low.

And inflation is indeed low. Core inflation — a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is widely considered a better gauge of underlying trends than the headline number — is running at just 0.6 percent, the lowest level ever recorded. Meanwhile, unemployment is almost 10 percent, and long-term unemployment is worse than it has been since the Great Depression.

So the case for Fed action is overwhelming. In fact, the main concern reasonable people have about the Fed’s plans — a concern that I share — is that they are likely to prove too weak, too ineffective.

But there are reasonable people — and then there’s the China-Germany-G.O.P. axis of depression.

It’s no mystery why China and Germany are on the warpath against the Fed. Both nations are accustomed to running huge trade surpluses. But for some countries to run trade surpluses, others must run trade deficits — and, for years, that has meant us. The Fed’s expansionary policies, however, have the side effect of somewhat weakening the dollar, making U.S. goods more competitive, and paving the way for a smaller U.S. deficit. And the Chinese and Germans don’t want to see that happen.

For the Chinese government, by the way, attacking the Fed has the additional benefit of shifting attention away from its own currency manipulation, which keeps China’s currency artificially weak — precisely the sin China falsely accuses America of committing.

But why are Republicans joining in this attack?

Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues seem stunned to find themselves in the cross hairs. They thought they were acting in the spirit of none other than Milton Friedman, who blamed the Fed for not acting more forcefully during the Great Depression — and who, in 1998, called on the Bank of Japan to “buy government bonds on the open market,” exactly what the Fed is now doing.

Republicans, however, will have none of it, raising objections that range from the odd to the incoherent.

The odd: on Monday, a somewhat strange group of Republican figures — who knew that William Kristol was an expert on monetary policy? — released an open letter to the Fed warning that its policies “risk currency debasement and inflation.” These concerns were echoed in a letter the top four Republicans in Congress sent Mr. Bernanke on Wednesday. Neither letter explained why we should fear inflation when the reality is that inflation keeps hitting record lows.

And about dollar debasement: leaving aside the fact that a weaker dollar actually helps U.S. manufacturing, where were these people during the previous administration? The dollar slid steadily through most of the Bush years, a decline that dwarfs the recent downtick. Why weren’t there similar letters demanding that Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman at the time, tighten policy?

Meanwhile, the incoherent: Two Republicans, Mike Pence in the House and Bob Corker in the Senate, have called on the Fed to abandon all efforts to achieve full employment and focus solely on price stability. Why? Because unemployment remains so high. No, I don’t understand the logic either.

So what’s really motivating the G.O.P. attack on the Fed? Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues were clearly caught by surprise, but the budget expert Stan Collender predicted it all. Back in August, he warned Mr. Bernanke that “with Republican policy makers seeing economic hardship as the path to election glory,” they would be “opposed to any actions taken by the Federal Reserve that would make the economy better.” In short, their real fear is not that Fed actions will be harmful, it is that they might succeed.

Hence the axis of depression. No doubt some of Mr. Bernanke’s critics are motivated by sincere intellectual conviction, but the core reason for the attack on the Fed is self-interest, pure and simple. China and Germany want America to stay uncompetitive; Republicans want the economy to stay weak as long as there’s a Democrat in the White House.

And if Mr. Bernanke gives in to their bullying, they may all get their wish.
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