[펌] `Civil War in the United States?`

월러스틴 옹/브레진스키가 미국내 폭동을 염려하는 글을 올렸습니다. 작년에 우석훈 교수나 김광수 경제연구소쪽에서 우리나라에서의 폭동이야기를 했을때 긴가민가하면서도 조심스러웠는데, 미국에서도 동일한 시각이 있군요. 결국 사태의 본질을 파악한 사람들은 이게.. 그냥 넘어가기 어려울 정도로 그 동안 기득권측의 탐욕이 지나쳤다고 생각하는 모양입니다. 

이번 금융위기를 계기로 계급갈등이 촉발될 수 있다고 보는듯 합니다. 이제 정작 미국에서는 이런 시각이 나타나는 판국에.. 우리나라의 3월은 너무나 평온하게 지나가고 있군요. 

환율은 낮아지고 있고, 주가는 1200선을 오르락내리락 하면서 3월 수출입흑자는 45억불을 넘어설거라는 예상이 나오고 있습니다. 이제 위기는 지나간걸까요?

대부분의 사람들은 경제나 이런거 큰 관심 없습니다. 단지 다니던 일자리가 없어지고, 매일 오르던 매상이 줄어들고, 시장에 나가도 같은 돈으로 살수 있는 물건이 줄어들면... 뭔가 이상하다고 생각하기 시작하죠. 사람들이 서로 이야기하기 시작할때가 언제쯤 일까요?

 

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We are getting accustomed to all sorts of breakdowns of taboos. Theworld press is full of discussion about whether it would be a good ideato "nationalize" banks. None other thanAlan Greenspan, disciple of the superlibertarian prophet of pure marketcapitalism, Ayn Rand, has recently said that we have to nationalizebanks once every hundred years, and thismay be that moment. Conservative Republican Senator Lindsay Grahamagreed with him. Left Keynesian Alan Blinder discussed the pros andcons of this idea. And while he thinksthe cons are a bit bigger than the pros, he was willing to spend publicintellectual energy writing about this in the New York Times.

Well, after hearing nationalization proposals by arch-conservativenotables, we are now hearing serious discussions about thepossibilities of civil war in the United States.Zbigniew Brzezinski, apostle of anti-Communist ideology and PresidentCarter's National Security Advisor, appeared on a morning televisiontalk show on February 17, and wasasked to discuss his previous mention of the possibility of classconflict in the United States in the wake of the worldwide economiccollapse.

Brzezinski said he was worried about it because of the prospect of"millions and millions of unemployed people facing dire straits,"people who have become aware "of thisextraordinary wealth that was transferred to a few individuals withouthistorical precedent in America."

He reminded the listeners that, when there was a massive bankingcrisis in 1907, the great financier, J.P. Morgan, invited a group ofwealthy financiers to his home, locked them inhis library, and wouldn't let them out until they all kicked in moneyfor a fund to stabilize the banks. Brzezinski said: "Where is themonied class today? Why aren't they doingsomething: the people who made billions?"

In the absence of their doing something on a voluntary basis,Brzezinski said, "there's going to be growing conflict between theclasses and if people are unemployed and reallyhurting, hell, there could even be riots!"

Almost simultaneously, a European agency called LEAP/Europe thatissues monthly confidential Global Europe Anticipation Bulletins forits clients - politicians, public servants,businessmen, and investors - devoted its February issue to globalgeopolitical dislocation. The report did not paint a pretty picture. Itdiscussed the possibility of civil war in Europe,in the United States, and Japan. It foresaw a "generalized stampede"that will lead to clashes, semi-civil wars.

The experts have some advice: "If your country or region is a zonein which there is a massive availability of guns, the best thing youcan do...is to leave the region, if that'spossible." The only one of these countries which meets the descriptionof massively available guns is the United States. The head ofLEAP/Europe, Franck Biancheri, noted that"there are 200 million guns in circulation in the United States, andsocial violence is already manifest via gangs." The experts who wrotethe report asserted that there is already anongoing emigration of Americans

to Europe, because that is "where physical danger will remain marginal."

If Brzezinski hopes for the emergence of another J.P. Morgan in theUnited States to force sense upon the "monied" class, the LEAP/Europereport sees a "last chance" in the April 2London meeting of the G20, provided the participants come forward witha "convincing and audacious" plan.

These analyses are not coming from left intellectuals or radicalsocial movements. They are the openly expressed fears of seriousanalysts who are part of the existing Establishmentin the United States and Europe. Verbal taboos are broken only whensuch people are truly fearful. The point of breaking the taboos is totry to bring about major rapid action - theequivalent of J.P. Morgan locking the financiers in his home in 1907.

It was easier in 1907.

by Immanuel Wallerstein