[펌] Obama`s Victory - Fear and Hope

월러스틴 교수의 이번 오바마 당선에 대한 사설입니다. 전 잘 실감을 못하겠던데, 흑인 당선이 역사적이긴 역사적인 모양이네요. 당선 이유를 좌파, 우파, 중도파에 거쳐 분석했는데, 대부분 부쉬 정권 및 앞으로 닥쳐올 경기침체에 대한 공포 때문이라고 보고 있습니다. 말하자면.. 우리나라에서 10년 전 김대중 대통령이 집권했던 상황과 비슷한 것이죠. 

월러스틴 옹은 오바마가 앞으로 국내정치에서 할일을 세가지 정도 나열하고 있습니다. 

1. 일자리 창출 2. 의료복지 혜택 확대 3. 사법체계에서 침해된 민주화 원복

이런 문제들은 우리나라의 노무현 정부때와 비교해보는 거도 재미있을듯 합니다. 

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The whole of the United States and indeed the whole world waswatching, and almost all of it was cheering, the election of BarackObama as the next president of the United States.Although, during the electoral campaign, everyone tried to play downthe centrality of the racial issue, on Nov. 4 it seemed that no onecould talk of anything else. There are threecentral questions about what most commentators are calling this"historic event": How important is it? What explains the victory? Whatis likely to happen now?

On the evening of November 4, an immense crowd assembled in GrantPark, Chicago, to hear Obama's acceptance speech. All those who werewatching U.S. television saw thecamera zoom in on Jesse Jackson, who was in tears. Those tears reflectthe virtually unanimous view of all African-Americans, who regardObama's election as the moment of theirdefinitive integration into the U.S. electoral process. They do notbelieve that racism has disappeared. But a symbolic barrier has beencrossed, first of all for them, and then for allthe rest of us.

Their sentiment is quite parallel to the feelings of Africans inSouth Africa on April 27, 1994 when they voted to elect Nelson Mandelapresident of their country. It has not matteredthat Mandela, as president, did not fulfill the whole promise of hisparty. It will not matter if Obama does not fulfill the whole promiseof his campaign. In the United States, as inSouth Africa, a new day has dawned. Even if it is an imperfect day, itis a better day than before. The African-Americans, but also theHispanics and the young people in general,voted for Obama out of hope - a diffuse hope, but a real one.

How did Obama win? He won the way anyone wins in a large, complexpolitical situation. He put together a large coalition of manydifferent political forces. In this case, the gamutran from fairly far left to right of center. He would not have wonwithout that enormous range of support. And, of course, now that he haswon, all the different groups want him togovern as each prefers, which is of course not possible.

Who are these different elements, and why did they support him? Onthe left, even the far left, they voted for Obama because of deep angerabout the damage the Bush regimeinflicted on the United States and the world, and the genuine fear thatMcCain would have been no better, perhaps worse. On the center-right,independents and many Republicansvoted for him most of all because they had become aghast at theever-increasing dominance of the Christian right in Republican partypolitics, a sentiment that was underlined bythe choice of Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential candidate. Thesepeople voted for Obama because they were afraid of McCain/Palin andbecause Obama convinced them that hewas a solid and sensible pragmatist.

And in-between these two groups were the so-called Reagan Democrats,largely industrial workers, often Catholics, often racist, who hadtended to desert their Democratic partyroots in recent elections because they viewed the party as having movedtoo far left and disapproved of its positions on social questions.These voters moved back to the Democraticparty not because their outlook had changed, but because of fear. Theywere deeply afraid of the economic depression into which the UnitedStates has moved, and thought that theironly hope was in a new New Deal. They voted for the Democrats despitethe fact that Obama was an African-American. Fear conquered racism.

And what will Obama do now? What can Obama do now? It is still tooearly to be sure. It seems clear that he will move quickly to takeadvantage of a crisis situation, as his newChief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, put it. I suspect we shall see a dramaticset of initiatives in the traditional first 100 days. And some of whatObama does may be surprising.

Still, there are two situations, the two biggest, that are largelybeyond his control - the transformed geopolitics of the world-system,and the catastrophic world economic situation.Yes, the world received Obama's victory with joy, but also withprudence. It is notable that two major centers of power issuedstatements on the geopolitical scene that were quiteforthright. Both the European Union in a unanimous statement andPresident Lula of Brazil said they looked forward to renewingcollaboration with the United States, but this timeas equals, not as junior partners.

Obama will pull out of Iraq more or less as promised, if for noother reason than the fact that the Iraqi government will insist uponit. He will try to find a graceful exit fromAfghanistan, which will not be too easy. But whether he will dosomething significant in relation to the Israel/Palestine deadlock andwhether he can look forward to a more stablePakistan is very unsure. And he will have less to say about it than hemay think. Can Obama accept the fact that the United States is nolonger the world's leader, merely a partnerwith other power centers? And, even if he can, can he somehow get theAmerican people to accept this new reality?

As for the depression, it will no doubt have to play out its course.Obama, like all the other major leaders in the world, is a captain on avery stormy sea, and can do relatively littlemore than try to keep his ship from sinking altogether.

Where Obama has some leeway is in the internal U.S. situation. Thereare three things where he is expected to act and can act, if he isready to be bold. One is job creation. This canonly be done effectively in the short run through government action.And it would be best done by investing in reconstructing the degradedinfrastructure of the United States, and inmeasures to reverse environmental decline.

The second is the establishment, at last, of a decent health carestructure in the United States, in which everyone, without exception,will be covered, and in which there will beconsiderable emphasis on preventive medicine.

And the third area is in undoing all the damage that has been doneto basic civil liberties in the United States by the Bushadministration, but also by prior administrations. Thisrequires an overhauling both of the Department of Justice and the legaland paralegal apparatus that has been constructed in the last eight,but also the last thirty, years.

If Obama acts decisively in these three arenas, then we might saythat this was a truly historic election, one in which the change thatoccurred was more than symbolic. But if he failshere, the letdown will be momentous.

Many are trying to divert his attention into the arenas in which hecannot do much, and in which his best position would be that of a lowerprofile, the acceptance of new worldreality. There is much about Obama's future actions to fear, and muchthat offers hope.

by Immanuel Wallerstein

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